Unraveling the Unpredictability: State Election 2023 as the Ultimate Test

The recent GE 15 highlighted the immense variability and unpredictability in predicting election outcomes, reminding us of the surprises that Malaysian politics never fails to deliver. Research institutes were unable to accurately anticipate the results, leaving us to wonder how UMNO, once a dominant force, was reduced to only 26 seats while PAS emerged victorious with 40 seats.

Given the inherent nature of politics, unpredictability is undeniable. However, compared to other countries, Malaysian pollsters have shown a remarkably high level of inaccuracy. In the 2016 US Presidential Election, despite wrongly predicting the outcome, most polls differed by no more than 3 percentage points from the actual results. In Malaysia, some poll results deviated by more than 20 points, especially when they predicted that PN would rank last, mirroring the Johor State Election results. Unfortunately, unlike the US, Malaysia lacks initiatives to address and improve the accuracy of pollsters. This issue may stem from a lack of available tools for pollsters and the insufficient political literacy among voters, both of which are interrelated.

In Malaysia, election result analysis differs from other countries as it is exclusive and kept secret by the EC. Only the official results are released to the public, while the more detailed insights into voters' backgrounds and tendencies are withheld, with reports suggesting that this information may even be sold by the EC. When the freedom of information is restricted, it severely limits pollsters' ability to present an accurate picture of the electorate's current sentiments and subsequently affects the election's outcome. The scarcity of information leads to sampling bias in surveys, as assumptions are made without proper data to support them.

While it is essential to protect certain information for security reasons and prevent media companies or pollsters from exploiting it to create a distorted narrative, this practice has also hindered political literacy progress in Malaysia. Reporting on political news is confined to freely available information, as there is no profit incentive to acquire a more comprehensive understanding of the political landscape in Malaysia.

Insufficient political literacy perpetuates a cycle where political reporting and polls become inaccurate and limited, reinforcing the inadequacy of political literacy across all age groups in Malaysia. This detrimental cycle harms the health of our democracy, as the public becomes increasingly misinformed about the current political scenario, which can impact accountability and progressive governance.

Moreover, Malaysia's current democratic system restricts democratic opportunities to only general elections, state elections, and party elections. Beyond these events, there is little room for people to exercise their democratic power through the ballot box. In contrast, the UK offers National Elections, Devolved State Assembly Elections, Local Elections, and Party Elections, allowing for a more accurate understanding of the people's sentiments toward the government or the opposition. Without these tools, political parties in Malaysia must rely on their internal machinery to gauge public sentiment, which is likely to be biased toward party expectations. Compounding the issue, political party leadership, such as UMNO, often faces no accountability when many top posts in the party go uncontested. This creates further bias in the sentiments of party supporters, based on baseless optimism held by certain leaders.

As a result of these factors, the upcoming state elections in Selangor, Kedah, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, and Terengganu will be the most unpredictable elections in history. We lack answers to crucial questions such as the public's approval of Anwar's premiership and the unity government, the transferability of votes among new coalition parties, and the impact of the recent PH-BN merger on voting behavior. These questions will remain unanswered until election night, as we face the following challenges:

- Absence of day-to-day polls or surveys reflecting the people's approval ratings of the coalition government's performance.

- Limited recent elections that could reflect the sentiments of the public (excluding the Padang Serai By-Election, which, if repeated nationwide, would spell disaster for the Madani Government).

- Lack of recent party elections that reflect grassroots sentiments toward party leadership actions.

- As the election draws near, there are no unbiased and reliable pollsters on whom we can rely to gauge public sentiment accurately.

In conclusion, the combination of limited democratic opportunities and restricted information freedom has created the perfect conditions for the unpredictability observed in the previous Malaysian General Election and the upcoming state elections. A utopia of a healthy democracy in Malaysia would entail widespread availability of information for the media and the general public to scrutinize and initiate healthy political discourse. This would encourage pollsters and media outlets to provide accurate and unbiased day-to-day snapshots of the people's sentiments, as seen in advanced nations. Additionally, introducing more elections to delegate democratic power to the people would paint a more accurate picture of the current sentiment. Local government elections would not only facilitate this goal but also ensure greater accountability of city councillors to the local populace. Party elections must also be open and transparent to allow parties to self-reflect on grassroots support and avoid misguided narratives. Ultimately, such efforts would benefit Malaysia by fostering a more reliable, accountable, and self-aware government that strives to maintain a positive approval rating. More information freedom and increased democratic opportunities would hold our leaders accountable, making Malaysian politics a constructive avenue for national progress. As the saying goes, a thriving nation is built upon accountability through a healthy democratic system.